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Crude oil – where is the price bottom? 15-25 USD?

The oil and its price have been widely discussed for months. Watching the oil price falling lower and lower and its impact on the markets, people are wondering where might be the price bottom. Let´s analyze the circumstances.

Crude oil – weekly storage report:

crude oil weekly storage report finilacomincrease of stocks
356 635 thousand barrels – September 26, 2014
494 920 thousand barrels – January 26, 2016 – new record, all time high

 

 

 

 

Crude oil – production, rig counts:

crude oil rig counts production finilacomoil production is still high despite of decreasing rig counts

 

 

 

 

 

Net position of managed money:

crude oil net position of managed money finilacomdecrease of positions
184 317 – October 13, 2015
69 755 – January 12, 2016
110 432 – January 26, 2016 – maybe gradual start of long buying by managed money, we will see later if it will continue

 

 

 

Chart – crude oil

Murrey math lines
monthly chart 1/8 – Fast reverse line – support: 25 USD
4H chart, daily chart 3/8 – Lower trading range – resistance: 34,38 USD, 1/8 – Fast reverse line – support: 28,13 USD, 0/8 – Hardest line to fall below – support: 25,01 USD, -1/8 Oversold line – support: 21,89 USD,  2/8 minimum of scale – support: 18,77 USD

Moving average EMA200
4H chart – 34,38 – resistance

Harmonics pattern
monthly chart – end of reversal zone 16,62 USD
wti-mn1-finilacom

 

 

 

 

 

 

minimum from 1998 – spot price about 10 USD, real price (inflation adjusted) 14-15 USD

crude oil chart real price finilacom

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary: the bottom price of crude oil could be around 20 USD ( 15-25 USD)

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