The oil and its price have been widely discussed for months. Watching the oil price falling lower and lower and its impact on the markets, people are wondering where might be the price bottom. Let´s analyze the circumstances.
Crude oil – weekly storage report:
increase of stocks
356 635 thousand barrels – September 26, 2014
494 920 thousand barrels – January 26, 2016 – new record, all time high
Crude oil – production, rig counts:
oil production is still high despite of decreasing rig counts
Net position of managed money:
decrease of positions
184 317 – October 13, 2015
69 755 – January 12, 2016
110 432 – January 26, 2016 – maybe gradual start of long buying by managed money, we will see later if it will continue
Chart – crude oil
Murrey math lines
monthly chart 1/8 – Fast reverse line – support: 25 USD
4H chart, daily chart 3/8 – Lower trading range – resistance: 34,38 USD, 1/8 – Fast reverse line – support: 28,13 USD, 0/8 – Hardest line to fall below – support: 25,01 USD, -1/8 Oversold line – support: 21,89 USD, 2/8 minimum of scale – support: 18,77 USD
Moving average EMA200
4H chart – 34,38 – resistance
Harmonics pattern
monthly chart – end of reversal zone 16,62 USD
minimum from 1998 – spot price about 10 USD, real price (inflation adjusted) 14-15 USD
Summary: the bottom price of crude oil could be around 20 USD ( 15-25 USD)